New report predicts more doom for Nigerian CDMA's by year ending

MD/CEO, Visafone, Sailesh Iyer

There are strong convictions that the current dwindling fortunes of the Code Division Multiple Division Access (CDMA) will get worse by the end of the year 2012.

MD/CEO, Starcomms Plc, Logan Pather

The report, which is the property of Business Monitor International Limited(BMI) but made available to the ICT & Biz Africa by a privileged source, noted that the CDMA operators would continue to record subscriber net losses due to their inability to contend with the GSM operators in the current strong competition for customers loyalty in the industry.

According to the report, before the arrival of the GSM operators in 2001, the CDMAs then notably Multi-Links, Intercellular and Starcomms as well as NITEL had a free day adding that even as far as 2008 when the GSM operators were fully settled in the industry, the CDMA had a share increase of up to 10.9 per cent of the mobile market.

However, by 2009 the CDMA operators began to experience much slower growth, with the total number of CDMA customers growing by 25 per cent during the year while mobile customers numbered 7.565mn.

 BMI stated that the segment has been declining since early 2010 saying that during the financial year of 2010, the CDMA operators recorded total net losses of 1.463 million subscribers to reach 6.102 million subscribers.

The report further said that in 2011, they made another net loss of 1.501 million subscribers to bring the total subscribers base to 4.601 million at the end of December 2011 adding that the loss was equivalent to a 4.8 per cent share of the mobile market, the lowest level since mid-2008.

The report observed that the trend confirms the view of BMI that there is likelihood for consolidation in the CDMA market in the face of strong competition from their GSM mobile market rival.

BMI however said that the regulator has not provided explanation for the negative growth trend affecting the CDMA mobile sector.

"In the assessment of the BMI, the current situation of the  CDMA Operators suggest that even before they began experiencing negative customer growth in the second quarter of 2010, they were struggling to compete for customers with their GSM rival"

For instance, in 2011, only Visafone had a growth by recording a net addition of 45,000 subscribers bringing its subscriber base to 2.604 million, also in the first and third quarter it reported higher subscriber figures.

However, for Multi-Links and Zoom Mobile it was a very sad story as both experienced steeper customers losses in 2011 instead of a having additions. Multi-Links mobile customer base shrunk by a massive 51.8 per cent in 2001 to reach 701,304 subscribers at the end of 2011 compared to 1.44 million a year earlier.

A similar sad story was told by BMI of Zoom mobile, which recorded even steeper subscriber losses as its subscribers base contracted by 66.4 per cent during the same period to reach 315,619 subscribers.

For Starcomms, it began the year on a brightly with 8.2 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2011 but successive subscriber losses in the last three quarter of the year took its subscriber base to 980,109 at the end of 2011, down from 1.149 million a year earlier.

The report disclosed that sensing that their fortunes and stake in the industry wa a sharp decline, the CDMA began to adopt a network infrastructure sale and leaseback strategy to cut cost.

In August 2011 Visafone agreed to sell and lease back 459 telecoms towers to infrastructure company IHS Nigeria to whooping sum estimated at $67 million while Starcomms in December 2010 concluded a sale and lease back agreement with Swap Technologies and Telecoms for 407 of its 557 base station towers.

BMI noted that the terms of the agreement stated that the $81.4 million transaction means that Swap will take over the maintenance of the 407 towers, including the physical structures and power components.

However, the core network and radio components will remain under Starcomms ownership and control. The lease agreement is for an initial duration of 15 years and allows the CDMA operators full access to operate its network.

Though it was not clear what the money will be use for, it was however gathered that $67 million of the sale proceeds is meant to clear off a large chunk of bank debts while the rest will be for growth purpose.

A key aspect of Starcomms surviving strategy, Nigerian Compass gathered was the sack of top expatriate from the company in 2011.

Top on the list were its managing director of Mr. Maher Qubain, chief commercial officer, Mr. Tushar Maheshwari, head, brand management, Mr. Manish Singh and marketing director, Mr. Richard Gill.

In their place, a South African, Logan Pather was employed as managing director and chief executive officer to turn around the fortunes of the company, although the situation seems to have defiled all solutions resulting to the huge subscriber base loss recorded in 2011.

The only quoted CDMA operator on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, an annual general meeting slated for last month was put off without explanations after press invitation had gone out.

For Multi-Links its condition got worse in June last year when South Africa’s fixed-line incumbent Telkom said that it was stopping funding for loss making after it had spent $1.44 billion on the operator since 2007.

This was followed by a failed attempt to sell Multi-Links for $52 million to Visafone but the deal, which was agreed to in April 2011 was cancelled in June after a Lagos High Court ruled in favour of Helios Towers Nigeria regarding a $252 million suit against Multi-Links over a contract breach for infrastructures services.

Just like the other CDMA operators, BMI attributed their crisis to the harsh operating environment in the country saying that it expects Helios Towers to sell Multi- Links in the future and when that happens, the CDMA operators would be among the front-runners.

Fears over mobile phones, base stations emissions still a mirage

Although a large number of studies have been performed over the last two decades to assess whether mobile phones pose a potential health risk, no adverse health effects have been established as being caused by mobile phone use.

Also, research does not suggest any consistent evidence of adverse health effects from exposure to radiofrequency fields at levels below those that cause tissue heating.

It therefore seems that the fears exercised by most mobile phone users about the possible health implications are mere mirage.

Those were the submission made by foreign and Nigerian experts who gathered in Lagos last week to discuss the possible health implications of mobile phone use as well as base stations.

The experts who were from the World Health Organisation, Mobile Manufacturers Forum, GSM Association, International Commission on Non Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP),the Federal Ministry of Health and the Ministry of the Environment were drawn from the various fields of health, environment, ICT and National Assembly.

The conference, known as the First West African Conference on Electromagnetic Fields (EMF) was organised by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to elucidate research already conducted on the issue.

In an opening remark at the gathering, the Minister of Communications Technology, Mrs. Omobola Johnson who was represented by the Stakeholder Management Commission at the NCC, Mr. Okey Itanyi said that the conference was organised to help guide government in evolving of policy guidelines on the supposed health implication of the use of mobile phones and other electronic devices.

At the conference with the theme: “Harmonizing EMF Policy, Exposure Limits and Risk Communication in West Africa”, the minister said the government is mindful of the health condition of Nigerians and wants to get a position that Nigerians can use mobile phones without worry about its health implication.

According to her, the government is aware of the confusion, which the possible health impact of mobile phones has created in the country.

In a paper titled: “RF and Health: A WHO Perspective”, Team Leader Radiation Programme, Department of Public Health and Environment, Dr. Emilie van Deventer said radio frequency fields is not limited mobile phones and base stations saying that it does exist security scanners, emerging technologist, navigational/radar equipment as well as residential sources such as microwave oven and health facility like x-ray machines.

She noted that the WHO is aware of the increasing concern of people about EMF saying that the increasing EMF human exposure is due to electricity demand, medical, technologies and wireless devices.

She however stated that in response to societal worries, the WHO in 1996 created the WHO International EMF project, a multinational, multidisciplinary effort designed to create and disseminate information on human health risk from EMF.

While referring to a fact sheet of the WHO dated June 2011, she said, “Research does not suggest any consistent evidence of adverse health effects from exposure to RF fields at levels below those that cause tissue heating”.

Deventer added: “research has not been able to provide support for a causal relationship between exposure to EMF and self-reported symptoms, or “electromagnetic hypersensitivity” (EHS).

According to her, “EHS is characterized by a variety of non-specific symptoms that differ from individual to individual,” saying “EHS has no clear diagnostic criteria and there is no scientific basis to link EHS symptoms to EMF exposure.”

She further disclosed that there are no increased risks of glioma, meningioma or acoustic neuroma with mobile phone use of more than 10 years noting that while there are no available data for long-term use, there indications of increased risk of glioma for heavy users.

As part of the WHO plan on dousing the fears of users on the radiation impact of mobile phones and base stations, she said the world body is in partnership with

international organizations, international, advisory committee, national authorities and collaborating centres

She said while evidence for other exposures such as base stations, wifi, and outcomes (other cancers) considered insufficient for any conclusion, studies on children is ongoing.

In his paper titled: “ICNIRP: Structure, Activitites, protection Standard”, Dr Paolo Vecchia of National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy and former Chairman of ICNIRP, said that “although there are deficiencies in the epidemiological work, the studies have yielded no convincing evidence that typical exposure levels lead to adverse reproductive outcomes or an increased cancer risk in exposed individuals”.

He however said a decision must be made whether the available evidence allows the

identification of an exposure hazard, that is an adverse health effect that is caused by an NIR exposure.

According to him, ICNIRP provides guidance and advice on the health hazards of non-ionizing radiation, develops international guidelines on limiting exposure to non-ionizing radiation that are independent and science based, provides science based guidance and recommendations on protection from non-ionizing radiation exposure.

He said it is the opinion of ICNIRP, that the scientific literature published since

the 1998 guidelines has provided no evidence of any adverse effects below the basic restrictions and does not necessitate an immediate revision of its guidance on limiting exposure to high frequency electromagnetic fields.

Director Europe, Middle East and Africa of Mobile Manufacturers Forum, Thomas Barmüller, while speaking on Mobile phones and Safety: International EMF policy Development said the Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) ensures that mobile phones are tested for compliance at the highest possible power level saying that the test rate is usually on the user manual.

According to him, mobiles only operate on the minimum power needed to make or maintain a call to extend battery life but this also reduces EMF exposure further adding that for but some people remain concerned, hands-free kit is recommended.

He however, noted that it’s not about additional or higher safety as all compliant mobile phones are equally safe stressing, “Science-based approach prevails as countries around the world have adopted ICNIRP limits” and that the ITU recommends that “if such limits do not exist, or if they do not cover the frequencies of interest, then ICNIRP limits should be used.”

He observed that the bill on EMF exposure limits discussed in National Assembly, which applies to both network infrastructure and handsets is based on the limits set by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP).

ECOWAS commissioner, Dr Raphael Koffi who spoke on the topic:  EMF Policy Survey in the ECOWAS region said that the commission has conducted an EMF exposure guidelines survey in 9 of the 15 ECOWAS Member States saying that the survey showed that all respondent countries have policies that have based their exposure limits on the International Commission for Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) guidelines.

He stated that few countries have set good practice targets while most countries have an appeals process.

3G takes the lead in internet access by 2017

Available statistics Ericsson has showed that come 2017, 85 percent of the world’s population would have internet coverage via 3G.

Presenting the result of the Ericsson’s Second Traffic and Market Report to Nigerian ICT journalist from Stockholm, Sweden, Head of Strategic Marketing and Intelligence, Patrick Cerwall said mobile broadband subscriptions are also expected to reach five billion in 2017, compared to one billion by the end of 2011.

He told the media last weekend that there would be close to nine billion mobile subscriptions, compared to six billion by the end of 2011 adding that Machine-to-machine subscriptions will add to this figure.

Reacting to questions to the issues of policy and regulations in the Nigerian telecoms industry, Governemnt and Industry Relations Manager Hub for Central and West Region Sub-Saharan Africa, Mr. Olaseni Ashiru there is the need for all stakeholders to sit down and harmonising their several roles in the industry.

He said there is a limit that corporate bodies like Ericsson can go, saying that what the industry needs is a holistic approach that would respect the roles of everyone in the industry.

According to him, every levels of government must see itself as part of the industry noting that if the industry is progressing that will bring more revenue to the levels of government.

Senior Vice President and head of Strategy, Ericsson, Mr. Douglas Gilstrap, said,  “Today, people see access to the internet as a prerequisite for any device. This mindset results in growing demand for mobile broadband and increased data traffic”. He noted that mobile telephone operators have recognize this business opportunity and are aiming to facilitate this growth by providing good user experience with fast data speeds through high capacity networks.

As a result, he said about “75 per cent of the HSPA networks worldwide have been upgraded to a peak speed of 7.2 Mbps or above and around 40 per cent has been upgraded to 21 Mbps.”

The  Ericsson also predicted that by 2017 half of the world’s population will be covered by LTE/4G networks while smartphone subscriptions move to about three billion in 2017 compared to 700 million in 2011.

The report observed that total mobile data traffic in on the  increase as figures between Q1 2011 and Q1 2012 data traffic doubled with prime driver being video while Smartphones will remain, a key data traffic driver. The mobile data traffic will grow by 15 times between 2011 and 2017.

The data in the report also showed variations between countries and regions. In the case of mobile net additions, China added the most subscriptions for a single country in Q1 2012 with 39 million, followed by India with 25 million. The Asia Pacific region added in total 93 million subscriptions, followed by Africa with 30 million.

Cerwall noted that the main continuous trend identified in the report is that everything is going mobile stating that “this evolution is mainly being driven by people’s increasing demand for anywhere, anytime connectivity and the use of video, cloud-based services and the internet but also by machine-to-machine connectivity”.

Ericsson has performed measurements since the early days of mobile broadband from a large base of live networks covering all regions of the world.

The aim of the report was to share analysis based on these measurements, internal forecasts and other relevant studies to provide insights into the current traffic and market trends.